If you read the headlines this week, you may think the IRS is about to release 280E guidance that explains how the rule works after rescheduling. It isn’t. It told you it plans to work on it.

The Treasury Department and IRS released their 2026-2027 Priority Guidance Plan, and “Guidance under §280E” is on it, one of 121 items. Progress made. Six months ago it wasn’t on the list at all. The plan covers a full year, October 2026 through September 2027, and it sets no completion date for any item. Your calendar-year 2026 books close in under three months.

Operators who wait for the guidance before making decisions are making a decision. They are betting the answer arrives in time and goes their way.

What the 280E Guidance Plan Actually Tells You

Read it for what it says, not what you hope it says.

The listing itself is a single line. Everything else comes from earlier statements. After the April order moving state-licensed medical marijuana to Schedule III, Treasury and the IRS said they expected significant positive tax effects for medical businesses. They also said guidance should clarify that 280E applies only to the trafficking activities of a business that runs both medical and adult-use operations. They signaled a transition rule that would treat rescheduling as applying to the entire taxable year that includes the order’s effective date.

It is also a description of intent, not a rule you can file a return under.

The Truth: a priority plan is a to-do list. Items slip. Some never get issued. The guidance, when it comes, may be narrower than the statements that preceded it.

Meanwhile, adult-use cannabis is still Schedule I while the broader rescheduling process continues, so 280E still applies in full to that side of your business. Some Republican lawmakers have filed legislation that would keep 280E in place no matter how a drug is scheduled. You can disagree with that effort, but it is a live variable.

Build Three Versions of Your 2026 Tax Bill

Stop carrying a single number for your 2026 federal liability. Carry three.

• Conservative. 280E treated as it was before April for everything. This is your floor for cash planning.
• Expected. The medical side relieved for the full 2026 tax year, with your best-supported allocation of shared costs to each side.
• Optimistic. The same relief, with every shared cost allocated as favorably as you can defend. Treat this as a ceiling, not a forecast.

The gap between conservative and expected is the amount of money riding on guidance you do not have yet. For many operators that gap is large enough to affect payroll, vendor terms, or a planned build-out.

What this means for you: know how big the gap is today. Do not discover it in March.

Your Q4 Estimated Payments Are the Real Deadline

Here is where the uncertainty turns into dollars. If you are a C corporation, your last 2026 estimated payment is due December 15. If you are a pass-through, your owners’ final estimate is due January 15.

Underpay and you owe penalties and interest on top of the tax. Overpay based on an optimistic reading and you are lending the government your cash with no promise of a quick return.

There is no clean answer, and we are not going to pretend there is one. The position most operators can defend is to pay estimates on a basis you can support today, and document why. Reserve the difference between your conservative and expected numbers in a separate account, so the money is there if the guidance disappoints and is easy to redeploy if it doesn’t.

The trap: treating relief you expect as relief you have. A deduction that depends on guidance that has not been issued is a position with risk, and your estimated payments should reflect that.

Fix the Books While You Wait

Whatever the guidance says, it will reward the operators who can show their work. Almost every scenario depends on being able to say which dollars belong to which side of the business.

• Segment your chart of accounts by license type. If you hold both medical and adult-use licenses, new transactions should sort themselves from here on. We walked through the mechanics in One Company, Two Tax Codes.
• Tag what is already booked. If the transition rule treats rescheduling as covering the whole year, your January through September transactions matter as much as the ones you book next month.
• Trace costs directly wherever you can. Staff, space, inventory and fees that clearly belong to one license should be tagged to it and left alone. Estimation is for what remains.
• Write down your allocation method now. State the method, the drivers, the data behind them and the date you chose them. If new guidance prescribes a different approach, you can adjust and show why. If it doesn’t, you already have a documented position.
• Rethink year-end inventory and expense timing. The old rule of pushing every defensible dollar into inventory depends on which side of the business the dollar sits on. Revisit it before December rather than on autopilot.

Red Flag: if your allocation can only be explained as “whatever gets the lowest tax,” you do not have a method. You have a conclusion looking for support, and a reviewer will see that.

The Guidance Will Reward Preparation, Not Patience

When the IRS finally publishes, operators will split into two groups. One will open the guidance and apply it to books that are already organized. The other will start the cleanup, with a filing deadline in the rearview mirror and an advisor who is suddenly booked solid.

You do not control when Treasury acts. You control whether your books are ready when it does.

Not sure what your 2026 tax bill looks like under each scenario? Mindtrix works exclusively with cannabis operators. We’ll build your conservative, expected and optimistic 2026 projections, segment your books by license type, document a defensible allocation method, and set a reserve and estimated-payment plan that holds up whichever way the guidance lands. Our services and audit defense work are built for exactly this. Schedule your free assessment here.

If the IRS guidance came out tomorrow, could your books support the answer it asks for? Tell us what’s holding you back in the comments.